Comments on: Russia, Ukraine, and Natural Gas: Russia Misguided Pipeline Politics?

By: sun bin

sun bin — Fri, 06 Jan 2006 06:44:53 +0000

sorry about the repetitive comment. some showed and some didn’t. please deelte the redundant ones.

yes, i agree with you it draws attention to some issues that is previously hidden.

—
p.s. i read somewhere else that Ukraine has ’siphoned’ gas a few times in the past, and russia had to increase supply to EU. it was during the 1990s and drew little media attention.

By: StrategyUnit

StrategyUnit — Thu, 05 Jan 2006 19:22:30 +0000

Sun Bin, on item 9#: The more I think about it, the more I think it cuts both ways:
1. I think we are seeing more vocal calls to get Russia out of G-8, but mostly from the pundits.
2. But, also by exposing Europe’s vulnerability and dependency on Russia, Russia has enhanced its position as a state with power over Europe and partly justifies its position in G-8.

Also it sets the agenda in the G-8 that Russia’s concerns need to be taken seriously by Europe and that Russia cant be taken for granted.

I will update further later tonight.

By: sun bin

sun bin — Wed, 04 Jan 2006 08:52:44 +0000

i think russia made a bad move, without carefully review its contract with EU, and without securing the alternative delivery via Belarus/Poland pipe.

I also think Russia is a bad bully.

However, I disagree with your 9 accusation on Russia based on this particular case. (same as I believe Saddam should be killed 100 times, and Iraq should be invaded. But the reason used was wrong)

What Gazprom asked Ukraine is exactly what a market economy would do. What German did was exactly to mitigate itself from such risk.

By: sun bin

sun bin — Wed, 04 Jan 2006 08:45:12 +0000

couldn’t post link here. you can see my blog for the source of the russian contract obligation.

By: sun bin

sun bin — Wed, 04 Jan 2006 08:42:24 +0000

some map and source in my blog
http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/2006/01/ukraine-gas-price-industry-unit.html

Therefore, Ukraine has a pretty strong position in hijacking Russia’s gas. Unless Russia can ask EU to force Ukraine, or use the alternative route via Poland to supply EU (bypass Poland), Russia couldn’t do much to Ukraine except suing it or asking EU observer to monitor the taps in Ukraine.

Putin acts too hastily.

By: sun bin

sun bin — Wed, 04 Jan 2006 08:38:11 +0000

after some googling myself. i came to this conclusion.

1. russia is justified in raising the price, and its asking price is reasonable. (I compared this versus EU, Romania, and futures prices in NYMEX)

2. Russia has contract obligation to supply EU up to the former USSR border. i.e. if Ukraine/Belarus steal the gas, EU will sue Russia based on the contract. But if Poland steals the gas, EU would sue Poland.
This makes Russia’s accusation quite plausible.

By: sun bin

sun bin — Wed, 04 Jan 2006 08:34:45 +0000

i tend to think the new German-Russia pipe under the Baltics makes much more sense now, as it would not be hijacked by a third country.

By: sun bin

sun bin — Wed, 04 Jan 2006 08:28:03 +0000

after some googling myself. i came to this conclusion.

1. russia is justified in raising the price, and its asking price is reasonable. (I compared this versus EU, Romania, and futures prices in NYMEX)

I have some maps and links (to oil and gas journal) about the situation in my blog

Putin acts too hastily.

By: IJ

IJ — Tue, 03 Jan 2006 16:29:34 +0000

Lots of good research. It raises questions about the integrity of globalisation.

Others are questioning it too. The President of Russia (G8 chair for 2006) addressed the National Security Council in the Kremlin last month.

The theme was international energy security:
>“This energy set-up should be equally fair for the producers and consumers of energy resources for the sustained economic growth in the world,” he underscored.